F1 Fantasy DNF Risk & Reliability 2026
Compare current retirement risk and downside for every F1 Fantasy driver and constructor before choosing your team or playing No Negative.
Current F1 Fantasy DNF risk: Spanish Grand Prix (Madrid)
DNF risk is an estimated probability, not a prediction that a retirement will happen. The downside floor is the 5th percentile from the 10,000-run simulation: roughly one outcome in twenty is worse.
| Driver | Team | DNF risk | Risk band | Exp. pts | P5 floor | P95 upside | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 33% | HIGH | -3.0 | -19.4 | 13.0 | $3.0M |
| Valtteri Bottas | Cadillac | 33% | HIGH | -1.8 | -19.4 | 17.0 | $3.0M |
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 29% | HIGH | -2.6 | -19.3 | 14.0 | $7.0M |
| Sergio Perez | Cadillac | 29% | HIGH | -1.3 | -19.4 | 15.0 | $3.0M |
| Alex Albon | Williams | 23% | MEDIUM | 2.8 | -18.9 | 24.0 | $5.8M |
| Oliver Bearman | Haas | 21% | MEDIUM | 1.3 | -18.5 | 19.0 | $6.4M |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Audi | 21% | MEDIUM | 3.9 | -18.2 | 27.0 | $4.2M |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 18% | MEDIUM | 16.7 | -14.5 | 44.0 | $27.4M |
| George Russell | Mercedes | 16% | MEDIUM | 25.1 | -11.3 | 50.0 | $27.7M |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 14% | MEDIUM | 18.3 | -12.0 | 43.0 | $24.1M |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | 14% | MEDIUM | 20.8 | -11.3 | 45.0 | $26.7M |
| Carlos Sainz | Williams | 11% | MEDIUM | 3.2 | -16.7 | 21.0 | $9.6M |
| Esteban Ocon | Haas | 11% | MEDIUM | 3.7 | -17.4 | 22.0 | $9.5M |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 11% | MEDIUM | 17.5 | -12.3 | 43.0 | $24.0M |
| Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 10% | LOW | 5.2 | -15.9 | 25.0 | $12.2M |
| Yuki Tsunoda | Racing Bulls | 10% | LOW | 7.7 | -15.7 | 38.0 | $9.9M |
| Liam Lawson | Red Bull | 10% | LOW | 10.2 | -14.3 | 42.0 | $14.9M |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | Audi | 5% | LOW | 6.5 | -12.8 | 25.0 | $8.6M |
| Arvid Lindblad | Racing Bulls | 5% | LOW | 6.6 | -11.5 | 25.0 | $8.0M |
| Franco Colapinto | Alpine | 5% | LOW | 7.4 | -13.7 | 27.0 | $10.4M |
| Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 5% | LOW | 22.6 | -6.7 | 45.0 | $25.2M |
| Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 5% | LOW | 27.5 | -4.6 | 49.0 | $26.3M |
Constructor reliability and downside
The constructor DNF figure is the average driver risk for that team, not the probability that at least one car retires. Constructor floors also include both drivers, qualifying teamwork, pit stops and simulated race outcomes.
| Constructor | Avg. DNF risk | Risk band | Exp. pts | P5 floor | P95 upside | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Martin | 31% | HIGH | -3.7 | -31.7 | 19.0 | $6.9M |
| Cadillac | 31% | HIGH | -3.5 | -33.7 | 20.0 | $3.0M |
| Williams | 17% | MEDIUM | 10.2 | -16.9 | 35.0 | $13.8M |
| Haas | 16% | MEDIUM | 7.7 | -17.4 | 31.0 | $10.8M |
| Red Bull | 14% | MEDIUM | 36.8 | -3.5 | 75.0 | $31.5M |
| Audi | 13% | MEDIUM | 18.4 | -9.4 | 45.0 | $8.0M |
| McLaren | 12% | MEDIUM | 50.6 | 10.2 | 85.0 | $31.6M |
| Mercedes | 11% | MEDIUM | 68.3 | 26.3 | 98.0 | $33.2M |
| Ferrari | 10% | LOW | 54.3 | 16.9 | 87.0 | $27.2M |
| Alpine | 8% | LOW | 17.5 | -7.9 | 41.0 | $19.2M |
| Racing Bulls | 8% | LOW | 25.8 | -3.1 | 59.0 | $14.1M |
What DNF risk means
DNF risk estimates the chance that a driver does not finish. It feeds the projected score and the simulation range because a retirement can turn a strong pick into a negative fantasy result. It is a probability, not a guarantee.
How to use the downside floor
The P5 floor is the fifth percentile from 10,000 simulated weekends. It is a useful stress test: compare it with expected points and P95 upside to see whether a pick is steady or volatile.
When No Negative becomes useful
No Negative protects driver scores below zero. It becomes more attractive when several drivers in your real team combine elevated DNF risk with negative P5 floors, especially on wet or high-attrition weekends. Do not judge the chip from one risky driver alone.
FAQ
Which F1 Fantasy driver has the highest DNF risk?
The current table is sorted from highest to lowest published DNF risk and updates with the prediction pipeline. Check the top row for the latest race-week estimate.
Should I use No Negative when DNF risk is high?
Consider No Negative when several drivers in your actual team have elevated retirement risk and negative downside floors. Weather and expected race chaos matter too, so use the full team profile rather than one driver.
How often does BoxBox update DNF risk?
DNF estimates update with the race-week prediction pipeline as current-season reliability, recent form, weekend conditions and new session data become available.