Esteban Ocon F1 Fantasy 2026
Esteban Ocon is ranked #15 by expected F1 Fantasy points for the Spanish Grand Prix (Madrid), with a current projection of 3.7 points.
Current projection
| Current team | Haas |
|---|---|
| Current price | $9.5M |
| Expected points | 3.7 |
| Projected points | 0.3 |
| Value rating | 0.39 PPM (#16 of 22) |
| Predicted quali | P16 |
| Predicted finish | P17 |
| 90% confidence range | -17.4 to 22.0 pts |
| DNF probability | 11% |
| Expected overtakes | 2.0 |
Against the full driver field, Esteban Ocon ranks #15 for expected points and #16 for points per million. The deterministic projection is 0.3 points, while the risk-adjusted simulation mean is 3.7.
Where the projection comes from
| Expected qualifying contribution | 0.4 pts |
|---|---|
| Expected race contribution | 3.4 pts |
| Expected positions gained/lost | -1.0 |
| Fastest-lap probability | 1% |
| Driver of the Day probability | 3% |
| Model confidence | 60% |
| Risk band | MEDIUM |
The model expects Esteban Ocon to move from P16 in qualifying to P17 in the race, with 2.0 expected overtakes. These are forecast components, not guaranteed scoring events.
Risk and upside
The 90% simulation interval runs from -17.4 to 22.0 points, around a 3.7-point mean. The modeled DNF probability is 11% and the current risk band is MEDIUM. For this round, the price profile reads as situational value; weather, reliability, safety cars, strategy and incidents can still move the outcome sharply.
2026 fantasy form
BoxBox's completed-round history records 120 fantasy points for Esteban Ocon across 13 rounds in 2026: 9.2 per round on average and a 9.0-point median. The latest three-round average is 1.3, which is below the season average.
| Round | Race | Fantasy pts | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R15 | Italian GP | 10 | Finished |
| R14 | Dutch GP | -10 | DNF |
| R13 | Hungarian GP | 4 | Finished |
| R12 | Belgian GP | 6 | Finished |
| R11 | British GP | 19 | Finished |
Season range: best result 24 points at the Chinese GP; lowest result -10 at the Dutch GP; 1 recorded DNF.
Use this projection
Open the Spanish GP (Madrid) picks page for the full race context, compare Esteban Ocon with the rest of the driver field, or test the pick alongside Haas in the live Optimizer. This page currently reflects the pre-practice model stage.
FAQ
How many F1 Fantasy points is Esteban Ocon projected to score?
Esteban Ocon is currently projected for 3.7 expected fantasy points at the Spanish GP (Madrid). The 90% simulation range is -17.4 to 22.0 points.
Is Esteban Ocon good value in F1 Fantasy?
Esteban Ocon costs $9.5M and has a value rating of 0.39 points per million for this round, so the model currently treats this as situational value.
What team does Esteban Ocon drive for?
Esteban Ocon is listed with Haas in the current BoxBoxF1Fantasy prediction file.
How has Esteban Ocon scored in F1 Fantasy this season?
BoxBox's completed-round history records 120 points across 13 rounds for Esteban Ocon, an average of 9.2 per round. The latest three-round average is 1.3.