Carlos Sainz F1 Fantasy 2026
Carlos Sainz is ranked #17 by expected F1 Fantasy points for the United States Grand Prix, with a current projection of -0.9 points.
Current projection
| Current team | Williams |
|---|---|
| Current price | $8.4M |
| Expected points | -0.9 |
| Projected points | -1.7 |
| Value rating | -0.11 PPM (#17 of 22) |
| Predicted quali | P18 |
| Predicted finish | P18 |
| 90% confidence range | -17.8 to 8.0 pts |
| DNF probability | 14% |
| Expected overtakes | 2.0 |
Against the full driver field, Carlos Sainz ranks #17 for expected points and #17 for points per million. The deterministic projection is -1.7 points, while the risk-adjusted simulation mean is -0.9.
Where the projection comes from
| Expected qualifying contribution | 0.0 pts |
|---|---|
| Expected race contribution | -0.9 pts |
| Expected positions gained/lost | -3.0 |
| Fastest-lap probability | 1% |
| Driver of the Day probability | 2% |
| Model confidence | 93% |
| Risk band | MEDIUM |
The model expects Carlos Sainz to move from P18 in qualifying to P18 in the race, with 2.0 expected overtakes. These are forecast components, not guaranteed scoring events.
Risk and upside
The 90% simulation interval runs from -17.8 to 8.0 points, around a -0.9-point mean. The modeled DNF probability is 14% and the current risk band is MEDIUM. For this round, the price profile reads as situational value; weather, reliability, safety cars, strategy and incidents can still move the outcome sharply.
2026 fantasy form
BoxBox's completed-round history records 117 fantasy points for Carlos Sainz across 17 rounds in 2026: 6.9 per round on average and a 9.0-point median. The latest three-round average is 10.7, which is above the season average.
| Round | Race | Fantasy pts | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R19 | Singapore GP | 13 | Finished |
| R18 | Bahrain GP in Malaysia | 4 | Finished |
| R17 | Azerbaijan GP | 15 | Finished |
| R16 | Spanish GP (Madrid) | -18 | DNF |
| R15 | Italian GP | 14 | Finished |
Season range: best result 28 points at the Chinese GP; lowest result -18 at the Spanish GP (Madrid); 2 recorded DNFs.
Use this projection
Open the United States GP picks page for the full race context, compare Carlos Sainz with the rest of the driver field, or test the pick alongside Williams in the live Optimizer. This page currently reflects the post-practice model stage.
FAQ
How many F1 Fantasy points is Carlos Sainz projected to score?
Carlos Sainz is currently projected for -0.9 expected fantasy points at the United States GP. The 90% simulation range is -17.8 to 8.0 points.
Is Carlos Sainz good value in F1 Fantasy?
Carlos Sainz costs $8.4M and has a value rating of -0.11 points per million for this round, so the model currently treats this as situational value.
What team does Carlos Sainz drive for?
Carlos Sainz is listed with Williams in the current BoxBoxF1Fantasy prediction file.
How has Carlos Sainz scored in F1 Fantasy this season?
BoxBox's completed-round history records 117 points across 17 rounds for Carlos Sainz, an average of 6.9 per round. The latest three-round average is 10.7.