Liam Lawson F1 Fantasy 2026
Liam Lawson is ranked #12 by expected F1 Fantasy points for the United States Grand Prix, with a current projection of 8.7 points.
Current projection
| Current team | Racing Bulls |
|---|---|
| Current price | $9.9M |
| Expected points | 8.7 |
| Projected points | 7.4 |
| Value rating | 0.88 PPM (#7 of 22) |
| Predicted quali | P9 |
| Predicted finish | P9 |
| 90% confidence range | -14.3 to 26.0 pts |
| DNF probability | 8% |
| Expected overtakes | 4.0 |
Against the full driver field, Liam Lawson ranks #12 for expected points and #7 for points per million. The deterministic projection is 7.4 points, while the risk-adjusted simulation mean is 8.7.
Where the projection comes from
| Expected qualifying contribution | 1.8 pts |
|---|---|
| Expected race contribution | 6.9 pts |
| Expected positions gained/lost | +0.0 |
| Fastest-lap probability | 4% |
| Driver of the Day probability | 2% |
| Model confidence | 98% |
| Risk band | LOW |
The model expects Liam Lawson to move from P9 in qualifying to P9 in the race, with 4.0 expected overtakes. These are forecast components, not guaranteed scoring events.
Risk and upside
The 90% simulation interval runs from -14.3 to 26.0 points, around a 8.7-point mean. The modeled DNF probability is 8% and the current risk band is LOW. For this round, the price profile reads as situational value; weather, reliability, safety cars, strategy and incidents can still move the outcome sharply.
2026 fantasy form
BoxBox's completed-round history records 219 fantasy points for Liam Lawson across 17 rounds in 2026: 12.9 per round on average and a 13.0-point median. The latest three-round average is 12.7, which is in line with the season average.
| Round | Race | Fantasy pts | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R19 | Singapore GP | 18 | Finished |
| R18 | Bahrain GP in Malaysia | 17 | Finished |
| R17 | Azerbaijan GP | 3 | Finished |
| R16 | Spanish GP (Madrid) | 16 | Finished |
| R15 | Italian GP | 25 | Finished |
Season range: best result 35 points at the Chinese GP; lowest result -12 at the Miami GP; 1 recorded DNF.
Use this projection
Open the United States GP picks page for the full race context, compare Liam Lawson with the rest of the driver field, or test the pick alongside Racing Bulls in the live Optimizer. This page currently reflects the post-practice model stage.
FAQ
How many F1 Fantasy points is Liam Lawson projected to score?
Liam Lawson is currently projected for 8.7 expected fantasy points at the United States GP. The 90% simulation range is -14.3 to 26.0 points.
Is Liam Lawson good value in F1 Fantasy?
Liam Lawson costs $9.9M and has a value rating of 0.88 points per million for this round, so the model currently treats this as situational value.
What team does Liam Lawson drive for?
Liam Lawson is listed with Racing Bulls in the current BoxBoxF1Fantasy prediction file.
How has Liam Lawson scored in F1 Fantasy this season?
BoxBox's completed-round history records 219 points across 17 rounds for Liam Lawson, an average of 12.9 per round. The latest three-round average is 12.7.