Liam Lawson F1 Fantasy 2026
Liam Lawson is ranked #8 by expected F1 Fantasy points for the Spanish Grand Prix (Madrid), with a current projection of 10.2 points.
Current projection
| Current team | Red Bull |
|---|---|
| Current price | $14.9M |
| Expected points | 10.2 |
| Projected points | 10.0 |
| Value rating | 0.68 PPM (#12 of 22) |
| Predicted quali | P8 |
| Predicted finish | P8 |
| 90% confidence range | -14.3 to 42.0 pts |
| DNF probability | 10% |
| Expected overtakes | 4.0 |
Against the full driver field, Liam Lawson ranks #8 for expected points and #12 for points per million. The deterministic projection is 10.0 points, while the risk-adjusted simulation mean is 10.2.
Where the projection comes from
| Expected qualifying contribution | 3.0 pts |
|---|---|
| Expected race contribution | 7.2 pts |
| Expected positions gained/lost | +0.0 |
| Fastest-lap probability | 4% |
| Driver of the Day probability | 3% |
| Model confidence | 41% |
| Risk band | LOW |
The model expects Liam Lawson to move from P8 in qualifying to P8 in the race, with 4.0 expected overtakes. These are forecast components, not guaranteed scoring events.
Risk and upside
The 90% simulation interval runs from -14.3 to 42.0 points, around a 10.2-point mean. The modeled DNF probability is 10% and the current risk band is LOW. For this round, the price profile reads as situational value; weather, reliability, safety cars, strategy and incidents can still move the outcome sharply.
Use this projection
Open the Spanish GP (Madrid) picks page for the full race context, compare Liam Lawson with the rest of the driver field, or test the pick alongside Red Bull in the live Optimizer. This page currently reflects the pre-practice model stage.
FAQ
How many F1 Fantasy points is Liam Lawson projected to score?
Liam Lawson is currently projected for 10.2 expected fantasy points at the Spanish GP (Madrid). The 90% simulation range is -14.3 to 42.0 points.
Is Liam Lawson good value in F1 Fantasy?
Liam Lawson costs $14.9M and has a value rating of 0.68 points per million for this round, so the model currently treats this as situational value.
What team does Liam Lawson drive for?
Liam Lawson is listed with Red Bull in the current BoxBoxF1Fantasy prediction file.