Lando Norris F1 Fantasy 2026
Lando Norris is ranked #10 by expected F1 Fantasy points for the United States Grand Prix, with a current projection of 11.5 points.
Current projection
| Current team | McLaren |
|---|---|
| Current price | $26.1M |
| Expected points | 11.5 |
| Projected points | 11.4 |
| Value rating | 0.44 PPM (#12 of 22) |
| Predicted quali | P6 |
| Predicted finish | P7 |
| 90% confidence range | -13.6 to 32.0 pts |
| DNF probability | 18% |
| Expected overtakes | 4.0 |
Against the full driver field, Lando Norris ranks #10 for expected points and #12 for points per million. The deterministic projection is 11.4 points, while the risk-adjusted simulation mean is 11.5.
Where the projection comes from
| Expected qualifying contribution | 5.2 pts |
|---|---|
| Expected race contribution | 6.2 pts |
| Expected positions gained/lost | -1.0 |
| Fastest-lap probability | 4% |
| Driver of the Day probability | 2% |
| Model confidence | 96% |
| Risk band | MEDIUM |
The model expects Lando Norris to move from P6 in qualifying to P7 in the race, with 4.0 expected overtakes. These are forecast components, not guaranteed scoring events.
Risk and upside
The 90% simulation interval runs from -13.6 to 32.0 points, around a 11.5-point mean. The modeled DNF probability is 18% and the current risk band is MEDIUM. For this round, the price profile reads as premium upside; weather, reliability, safety cars, strategy and incidents can still move the outcome sharply.
2026 fantasy form
BoxBox's completed-round history records 362 fantasy points for Lando Norris across 17 rounds in 2026: 21.3 per round on average and a 23.0-point median. The latest three-round average is 7.7, which is below the season average.
| Round | Race | Fantasy pts | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R19 | Singapore GP | 18 | Finished |
| R18 | Bahrain GP in Malaysia | 16 | Finished |
| R17 | Azerbaijan GP | -11 | DNF |
| R16 | Spanish GP (Madrid) | 23 | Finished |
| R15 | Italian GP | 32 | Finished |
Season range: best result 57 points at the Dutch GP; lowest result -17 at the Monaco GP; 3 recorded DNFs.
Use this projection
Open the United States GP picks page for the full race context, compare Lando Norris with the rest of the driver field, or test the pick alongside McLaren in the live Optimizer. This page currently reflects the post-practice model stage.
FAQ
How many F1 Fantasy points is Lando Norris projected to score?
Lando Norris is currently projected for 11.5 expected fantasy points at the United States GP. The 90% simulation range is -13.6 to 32.0 points.
Is Lando Norris good value in F1 Fantasy?
Lando Norris costs $26.1M and has a value rating of 0.44 points per million for this round, so the model currently treats this as premium upside.
What team does Lando Norris drive for?
Lando Norris is listed with McLaren in the current BoxBoxF1Fantasy prediction file.
How has Lando Norris scored in F1 Fantasy this season?
BoxBox's completed-round history records 362 points across 17 rounds for Lando Norris, an average of 21.3 per round. The latest three-round average is 7.7.