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Fernando Alonso F1 Fantasy 2026
Fernando Alonso is ranked #20 by expected F1 Fantasy points for the United States Grand Prix, with a current projection of -4.1 points.
Current projection
| Current team | Aston Martin |
|---|---|
| Current price | $5.4M |
| Expected points | -4.1 |
| Projected points | -3.7 |
| Value rating | -0.76 PPM (#19 of 22) |
| Predicted quali | P16 |
| Predicted finish | P17 |
| 90% confidence range | -19.3 to 9.0 pts |
| DNF probability | 31% |
| Expected overtakes | 2.0 |
Against the full driver field, Fernando Alonso ranks #20 for expected points and #19 for points per million. The deterministic projection is -3.7 points, while the risk-adjusted simulation mean is -4.1.
Where the projection comes from
| Expected qualifying contribution | 0.1 pts |
|---|---|
| Expected race contribution | -4.1 pts |
| Expected positions gained/lost | -4.0 |
| Fastest-lap probability | 1% |
| Driver of the Day probability | 2% |
| Model confidence | 95% |
| Risk band | HIGH |
The model expects Fernando Alonso to move from P16 in qualifying to P17 in the race, with 2.0 expected overtakes. These are forecast components, not guaranteed scoring events.
Risk and upside
The 90% simulation interval runs from -19.3 to 9.0 points, around a -4.1-point mean. The modeled DNF probability is 31% and the current risk band is HIGH. For this round, the price profile reads as situational value; weather, reliability, safety cars, strategy and incidents can still move the outcome sharply.
2026 fantasy form
BoxBox's completed-round history records 37 fantasy points for Fernando Alonso across 17 rounds in 2026: 2.2 per round on average and a 5.0-point median. The latest three-round average is 4.7, which is above the season average.
| Round | Race | Fantasy pts | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R19 | Singapore GP | 11 | Finished |
| R18 | Bahrain GP in Malaysia | 17 | Finished |
| R17 | Azerbaijan GP | -14 | DNF |
| R16 | Spanish GP (Madrid) | 4 | Finished |
| R15 | Italian GP | -10 | DNF |
Season range: best result 24 points at the Dutch GP; lowest result -26 at the Canadian GP; 6 recorded DNFs.
Use this projection
Open the United States GP picks page for the full race context, compare Fernando Alonso with the rest of the driver field, or test the pick alongside Aston Martin in the live Optimizer. This page currently reflects the post-practice model stage.
FAQ
How many F1 Fantasy points is Fernando Alonso projected to score?
Fernando Alonso is currently projected for -4.1 expected fantasy points at the United States GP. The 90% simulation range is -19.3 to 9.0 points.
Is Fernando Alonso good value in F1 Fantasy?
Fernando Alonso costs $5.4M and has a value rating of -0.76 points per million for this round, so the model currently treats this as situational value.
What team does Fernando Alonso drive for?
Fernando Alonso is listed with Aston Martin in the current BoxBoxF1Fantasy prediction file.
How has Fernando Alonso scored in F1 Fantasy this season?
BoxBox's completed-round history records 37 points across 17 rounds for Fernando Alonso, an average of 2.2 per round. The latest three-round average is 4.7.