Sepang is back for 2026. We compare BoxBox's pre-practice simulations with F1 Fantasy Tools and build a team around a $129.3M budget.

The race is officially called the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia. It is a fascinating fantasy weekend and an awkward one to predict. The current cars have never raced here, the last Formula 1 visit was in 2017, and the rain forecast is moving faster than the early simulations.

For a team with $129.3M, my first instinct is to spend heavily on constructors. The harder decision is which premium driver gets the 2x Boost and how much risk to accept in the remaining four seats.

This is a pre-practice preview, using BoxBox's September 26 model run and F1 Fantasy Tools' early Sepang simulation, last updated September 25. Neither has this weekend's practice laps. Treat the team below as a starting point for Friday, not a locked recommendation for Saturday.

Start with the constructors

Mercedes and Ferrari cost $61.4M together. That is a large chunk of your budget, but it is where the two sets of numbers line up best.

BoxBox's 10,000-run simulation averages 64.2 points for Mercedes and 48.7 for Ferrari. F1 Fantasy Tools' early simulation puts them at 75.3 and 63.3. The totals come from separate models and should not be added or averaged together. The useful agreement is the team-building conclusion: Mercedes is the standout constructor, while Ferrari makes an attractive second premium pick at $27.6M.

Red Bull is the obvious challenger to Ferrari. F1 Fantasy Tools gives Red Bull a slightly higher raw expectation, 65.8 points, but it costs $32.1M, which is $4.5M more than Ferrari. BoxBox currently has Ferrari ahead of Red Bull, 48.7 to 44.2 on simulation average. At this budget, I would rather use that $4.5M in the driver slots unless practice gives Red Bull a clear pace advantage.

Who gets the 2x Boost?

Our simulation has the three premium drivers tightly grouped: Kimi Antonelli 24.7, George Russell 23.6 and Max Verstappen 23.5 average points. Russell's headline 37.3 projected points is the score for our predicted finishing order. The lower simulation average reflects the many less tidy outcomes across 10,000 weekends.

F1 Fantasy Tools has Verstappen marginally first among those three at 29.7 expected points, then Antonelli on 29.2 and Russell on 28.7. That is a small gap, not a reason to tear up a team to get Max. Our numbers favour Antonelli for a points-first 2x choice at his $26.9M price, while Russell has a strong case if you trust his commanding Baku weekend to carry over. Formula 1's race-week preview also notes that Mercedes plans to bring an upgrade to Sepang. We still need to see it on track.

A $127.6M starting team

If I were building a fresh team under your $129.3M cap using our current simulation averages and the normal 2x Boost, this is still the highest-scoring combination:

Our simulation averages 191.3 team points with Antonelli boosted. The extra budget does not improve that model maximum, so there is no reason to spend the remaining $1.7M just to use it. That is a model mean, not a guarantee. It assumes a fresh seven-asset build, so your actual transfer limit, money already held in assets and any chips still available could change the right move.

Grid-penalty update — October 2: Colapinto now has a 15-place total penalty (five from Baku plus ten for his new engine). Hadjar has a five-place penalty, and Lindblad has a 30-place penalty / back-of-grid start. The forecasts below were published before these power-unit changes; the live predictions include the updated starting grids.

The uncomfortable name is Colapinto. He carries a confirmed five-place grid penalty from Baku. Our current grid projection moves him from P11 in qualifying to P16 at the start, and the model still finds a path to points through positions gained. That path is fragile if the weather or Alpine's pace changes. Swapping him for Gabriel Bortoleto makes the team $125.8M and reduces our simulated total to 188.4, while removing that specific grid-penalty bet. Leaving $3.5M unused is perfectly reasonable if it buys you a lineup you trust more.

At a $129.3M limit, F1 Fantasy Tools now puts a full-budget team first: Mercedes, Ferrari, Antonelli at 2x, Hadjar, Pierre Gasly, Liam Lawson and Hulkenberg. It costs exactly $129.3M and shows 246.2 expected points. Their Verstappen-led option with Stroll instead of Hulkenberg still shows 246.2 at the displayed precision, but costs $127.6M. More money creates another route here, not a clear points gap. Compare the picks and assumptions, not either Tools total directly with BoxBox's 191.3. Their early run was set to dry or average conditions.

Hadjar is the call to revisit after FP2

Hadjar is in both example teams, but the models do not agree on his likely score. BoxBox has him at 10.3 simulated points for $15.1M. F1 Fantasy Tools shows 22.1 expected points and a positive price-change estimate. Lawson is another split, at 3.5 for us and 9.8 for them.

That gap is useful information. It says these mid-priced seats deserve more attention than a confident one-line recommendation. F1 Fantasy price-change estimates are also estimates, especially around a returning driver's scoring window. I would use the Friday long runs and qualifying pace to decide whether Hadjar is worth the $15.1M commitment, rather than buying him for a projected price rise alone.

The weather could rewrite this preview

The latest BoxBox weather feed, retrieved late on September 29, puts race-session rain probability at 88% and FP2 at 94%. A probability is not a forecast that it will rain for the whole session. It does mean a dry baseline is a shaky place to stop the analysis.

Our published simulation was generated earlier, when its weather adjustment recorded medium rain risk. F1 Fantasy Tools labels its September 25 run dry or average. Neither set of point estimates fully reflects the newer high-rain forecast. Wet practice could also make the long-run evidence harder to compare across teams. I would keep transfers flexible, watch the forecast, and rerun the comparison when the post-FP2 numbers are live.

The F1 Fantasy deadline is Saturday, October 3 at 08:00 UTC, before qualifying. There is time to learn from practice, but not from the confirmed Grand Prix grid. For now, Mercedes plus Ferrari is the clearest shared signal. The premium 2x call and the Hadjar decision are where Friday can still change my mind.

Sources and timing: BoxBox projections generated September 26; BoxBox weather retrieved September 29; F1 Fantasy Tools Team Calculator and Budget Builder, Rhter's early Sepang simulation updated September 25. Prices and tool results were checked September 30. The official F1 Fantasy strategist preview gives the deadline.