Japanese Grand Prix Preview
We are hot off a sprint weekend in China and we head into the Japanese Grand Prix. Some teams, including Aston Martin with their Honda power-unit, are bringing upgrades to table in hopes of better vibes-sorry not sorry. Mercedes are still the clear favorites, but I am not counting out a competitive weekend from Ferrari given the number of esses we have on track. The long straight sections are still fantastic fodder for the Merc powered teams. I expect Alpine to put on a good show given that they were the team with the highest speed trap speed.
Things To Look Out For
Red Bull is quite off-putting with their questionable reliability. At a glance they might seem safe enough, but I am still not convinced that they are reliable enough to justify their huge price tag. Steer clear unless Free Practice totally throws a wrench in the works. We need to see where Ferrari are, but I expect them to be a close second. Mclaren are still meh, although on the mend. Very curious that they are the team pushing investigations towards Mercedes' allegedly double stage wing-closing contraption. Definitely keeping an eye out for updates on that front.
I suspect Alpine will have the slight edge on the top speed side of things. They seem slippery and fast with that Mercedes power unit in the back. Haas and Racing Bulls are as even as can be. I slightly favor Haas more given their punchy drivers. Another factor is that, as long as they score more than -68 points, they will go up in value by $0.6 M. Racing Bulls and Alpine need to score -58 and -17 points respectively for maximum budget gain.
We are still early in the season, so I am personally still leaning more towards budget gain as opposed to pure points performance teams. Hence drivers like Bearman and Lawson are must haves for me. With -23 and -15 as their minimum points needed for a $0.6 M budget rise, they are as safe as we can hope for. Ocon is relatively safe too. Where things get spicy is with Perez. He only needs -1 point for a $0.6 M increase, but DNF probability is still quite high. Use with caution.
If you have Bortoleto or Hulkenburg, like many of us, including myself, they need to go. I would take Perez in over those two in a heartbeat to avoid their almost absolutely certain price drop. And, needless to stay, stay clear of any Aston Martin assets, unless you are playing an reverse league like Zach's GP has got going.
As always, wait till after free practice to make any final decisions. Website will be updated after each free practice session, so be sure to check back for latest simulations and predictions.