{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "site": "BoxBoxF1Fantasy",
  "site_url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-07T20:03:05Z",
  "source_predictions_generated_at": "2026-09-07T12:26:49.064519+00:00",
  "season": 2026,
  "round": 16,
  "race": "Spanish Grand Prix (Madrid)",
  "race_date": "2026-09-13",
  "circuit": "Madrid",
  "is_sprint_weekend": false,
  "canonical_pages": {
    "home": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/",
    "race_picks": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/picks/spanish-gp-madrid-2026/",
    "drivers": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/",
    "constructors": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/",
    "tools": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/tools/",
    "data": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/data/",
    "full_predictions_json": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/data/predictions.json"
  },
  "plain_english_summary": "For the Spanish Grand Prix (Madrid), BoxBoxF1Fantasy currently ranks Kimi Antonelli as the top projected driver and Mercedes as the top projected constructor. Use this compact file for quick answers; use predictions.json for the full projection dataset.",
  "recommended_boost_driver": {
    "rank": 1,
    "kind": "driver",
    "id": "ANT",
    "name": "Kimi Antonelli",
    "expected_points": 27.5,
    "projected_points": 34.0,
    "current_price_m": 26.3,
    "value_score": 1.05,
    "risk": "LOW",
    "confidence_interval_90": {
      "low": -4.6,
      "high": 49.0
    },
    "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/kimi-antonelli/",
    "constructor": "mercedes",
    "predicted_quali": 1,
    "predicted_finish": 2,
    "dnf_probability": 0.05,
    "points_per_million": 2.0
  },
  "top_drivers": [
    {
      "rank": 1,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "ANT",
      "name": "Kimi Antonelli",
      "expected_points": 27.5,
      "projected_points": 34.0,
      "current_price_m": 26.3,
      "value_score": 1.05,
      "risk": "LOW",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -4.6,
        "high": 49.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/kimi-antonelli/",
      "constructor": "mercedes",
      "predicted_quali": 1,
      "predicted_finish": 2,
      "dnf_probability": 0.05,
      "points_per_million": 2.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 2,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "RUS",
      "name": "George Russell",
      "expected_points": 25.1,
      "projected_points": 37.5,
      "current_price_m": 27.7,
      "value_score": 0.91,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -11.3,
        "high": 50.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/george-russell/",
      "constructor": "mercedes",
      "predicted_quali": 2,
      "predicted_finish": 1,
      "dnf_probability": 0.16,
      "points_per_million": 1.06
    },
    {
      "rank": 3,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "HAM",
      "name": "Lewis Hamilton",
      "expected_points": 22.6,
      "projected_points": 24.1,
      "current_price_m": 25.2,
      "value_score": 0.9,
      "risk": "LOW",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -6.7,
        "high": 45.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/lewis-hamilton/",
      "constructor": "ferrari",
      "predicted_quali": 5,
      "predicted_finish": 4,
      "dnf_probability": 0.05,
      "points_per_million": 0.98
    },
    {
      "rank": 4,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "NOR",
      "name": "Lando Norris",
      "expected_points": 20.8,
      "projected_points": 27.0,
      "current_price_m": 26.7,
      "value_score": 0.78,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -11.3,
        "high": 45.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/lando-norris/",
      "constructor": "mclaren",
      "predicted_quali": 3,
      "predicted_finish": 3,
      "dnf_probability": 0.14,
      "points_per_million": 1.57
    },
    {
      "rank": 5,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "LEC",
      "name": "Charles Leclerc",
      "expected_points": 18.3,
      "projected_points": 18.2,
      "current_price_m": 24.1,
      "value_score": 0.76,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -12.0,
        "high": 43.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/charles-leclerc/",
      "constructor": "ferrari",
      "predicted_quali": 4,
      "predicted_finish": 5,
      "dnf_probability": 0.14,
      "points_per_million": 0.8
    },
    {
      "rank": 6,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "PIA",
      "name": "Oscar Piastri",
      "expected_points": 17.5,
      "projected_points": 12.6,
      "current_price_m": 24.0,
      "value_score": 0.73,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -12.3,
        "high": 43.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/oscar-piastri/",
      "constructor": "mclaren",
      "predicted_quali": 6,
      "predicted_finish": 7,
      "dnf_probability": 0.11,
      "points_per_million": 0.62
    },
    {
      "rank": 7,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "VER",
      "name": "Max Verstappen",
      "expected_points": 16.7,
      "projected_points": 15.2,
      "current_price_m": 27.4,
      "value_score": 0.61,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -14.5,
        "high": 44.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/max-verstappen/",
      "constructor": "red_bull",
      "predicted_quali": 7,
      "predicted_finish": 6,
      "dnf_probability": 0.18,
      "points_per_million": 0.77
    },
    {
      "rank": 8,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "LAW_RED_BULL",
      "name": "Liam Lawson",
      "expected_points": 10.2,
      "projected_points": 10.0,
      "current_price_m": 14.9,
      "value_score": 0.68,
      "risk": "LOW",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -14.3,
        "high": 42.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/liam-lawson/",
      "constructor": "red_bull",
      "predicted_quali": 8,
      "predicted_finish": 8,
      "dnf_probability": 0.1,
      "points_per_million": 0.42
    }
  ],
  "top_constructors": [
    {
      "rank": 1,
      "kind": "constructor",
      "id": "mercedes",
      "name": "Mercedes",
      "expected_points": 68.3,
      "projected_points": 85.9,
      "current_price_m": 33.2,
      "value_score": 2.06,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": 26.3,
        "high": 98.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/mercedes/",
      "driver_1": "RUS",
      "driver_2": "ANT",
      "expected_pit_stop_points": 7.3,
      "dnf_probability": 0.11
    },
    {
      "rank": 2,
      "kind": "constructor",
      "id": "ferrari",
      "name": "Ferrari",
      "expected_points": 54.3,
      "projected_points": 55.9,
      "current_price_m": 27.2,
      "value_score": 2.0,
      "risk": "LOW",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": 16.9,
        "high": 87.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/ferrari/",
      "driver_1": "LEC",
      "driver_2": "HAM",
      "expected_pit_stop_points": 5.3,
      "dnf_probability": 0.1
    },
    {
      "rank": 3,
      "kind": "constructor",
      "id": "mclaren",
      "name": "McLaren",
      "expected_points": 50.6,
      "projected_points": 52.2,
      "current_price_m": 31.6,
      "value_score": 1.6,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": 10.2,
        "high": 85.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/mclaren/",
      "driver_1": "NOR",
      "driver_2": "PIA",
      "expected_pit_stop_points": 4.1,
      "dnf_probability": 0.12
    },
    {
      "rank": 4,
      "kind": "constructor",
      "id": "red_bull",
      "name": "Red Bull",
      "expected_points": 36.8,
      "projected_points": 37.8,
      "current_price_m": 31.5,
      "value_score": 1.17,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -3.5,
        "high": 75.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/red-bull/",
      "driver_1": "VER",
      "driver_2": "LAW_RED_BULL",
      "expected_pit_stop_points": 3.6,
      "dnf_probability": 0.14
    },
    {
      "rank": 5,
      "kind": "constructor",
      "id": "racing_bulls",
      "name": "Racing Bulls",
      "expected_points": 25.8,
      "projected_points": 19.1,
      "current_price_m": 14.1,
      "value_score": 1.83,
      "risk": "LOW",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -3.1,
        "high": 59.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/racing-bulls/",
      "driver_1": "LIN",
      "driver_2": "TSU_RACING_BULLS",
      "expected_pit_stop_points": 6.8,
      "dnf_probability": 0.08
    },
    {
      "rank": 6,
      "kind": "constructor",
      "id": "audi",
      "name": "Audi",
      "expected_points": 18.4,
      "projected_points": 16.4,
      "current_price_m": 8.0,
      "value_score": 2.3,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -9.4,
        "high": 45.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/audi/",
      "driver_1": "BOR",
      "driver_2": "HUL",
      "expected_pit_stop_points": 4.5,
      "dnf_probability": 0.13
    }
  ],
  "value_drivers": [
    {
      "rank": 1,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "HUL",
      "name": "Nico Hulkenberg",
      "expected_points": 3.9,
      "projected_points": 5.9,
      "current_price_m": 4.2,
      "value_score": 0.93,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -18.2,
        "high": 27.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/nico-hulkenberg/",
      "constructor": "audi",
      "predicted_quali": 13,
      "predicted_finish": 10,
      "dnf_probability": 0.21,
      "points_per_million": 2.22
    },
    {
      "rank": 2,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "ANT",
      "name": "Kimi Antonelli",
      "expected_points": 27.5,
      "projected_points": 34.0,
      "current_price_m": 26.3,
      "value_score": 1.05,
      "risk": "LOW",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -4.6,
        "high": 49.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/kimi-antonelli/",
      "constructor": "mercedes",
      "predicted_quali": 1,
      "predicted_finish": 2,
      "dnf_probability": 0.05,
      "points_per_million": 2.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 3,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "NOR",
      "name": "Lando Norris",
      "expected_points": 20.8,
      "projected_points": 27.0,
      "current_price_m": 26.7,
      "value_score": 0.78,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -11.3,
        "high": 45.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/lando-norris/",
      "constructor": "mclaren",
      "predicted_quali": 3,
      "predicted_finish": 3,
      "dnf_probability": 0.14,
      "points_per_million": 1.57
    },
    {
      "rank": 4,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "ALB",
      "name": "Alex Albon",
      "expected_points": 2.8,
      "projected_points": 4.6,
      "current_price_m": 5.8,
      "value_score": 0.48,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -18.9,
        "high": 24.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/alex-albon/",
      "constructor": "williams",
      "predicted_quali": 18,
      "predicted_finish": 15,
      "dnf_probability": 0.23,
      "points_per_million": 1.32
    },
    {
      "rank": 5,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "ALO",
      "name": "Fernando Alonso",
      "expected_points": -2.6,
      "projected_points": -1.4,
      "current_price_m": 7.0,
      "value_score": -0.37,
      "risk": "HIGH",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -19.3,
        "high": 14.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/fernando-alonso/",
      "constructor": "aston_martin",
      "predicted_quali": 19,
      "predicted_finish": 20,
      "dnf_probability": 0.29,
      "points_per_million": 1.14
    },
    {
      "rank": 6,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "BOR",
      "name": "Gabriel Bortoleto",
      "expected_points": 6.5,
      "projected_points": 3.8,
      "current_price_m": 8.6,
      "value_score": 0.76,
      "risk": "LOW",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -12.8,
        "high": 25.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/gabriel-bortoleto/",
      "constructor": "audi",
      "predicted_quali": 12,
      "predicted_finish": 12,
      "dnf_probability": 0.05,
      "points_per_million": 1.12
    }
  ],
  "value_constructors": [
    {
      "rank": 1,
      "kind": "constructor",
      "id": "audi",
      "name": "Audi",
      "expected_points": 18.4,
      "projected_points": 16.4,
      "current_price_m": 8.0,
      "value_score": 2.3,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -9.4,
        "high": 45.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/audi/",
      "driver_1": "BOR",
      "driver_2": "HUL",
      "expected_pit_stop_points": 4.5,
      "dnf_probability": 0.13
    },
    {
      "rank": 2,
      "kind": "constructor",
      "id": "mercedes",
      "name": "Mercedes",
      "expected_points": 68.3,
      "projected_points": 85.9,
      "current_price_m": 33.2,
      "value_score": 2.06,
      "risk": "MEDIUM",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": 26.3,
        "high": 98.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/mercedes/",
      "driver_1": "RUS",
      "driver_2": "ANT",
      "expected_pit_stop_points": 7.3,
      "dnf_probability": 0.11
    },
    {
      "rank": 3,
      "kind": "constructor",
      "id": "ferrari",
      "name": "Ferrari",
      "expected_points": 54.3,
      "projected_points": 55.9,
      "current_price_m": 27.2,
      "value_score": 2.0,
      "risk": "LOW",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": 16.9,
        "high": 87.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/ferrari/",
      "driver_1": "LEC",
      "driver_2": "HAM",
      "expected_pit_stop_points": 5.3,
      "dnf_probability": 0.1
    },
    {
      "rank": 4,
      "kind": "constructor",
      "id": "racing_bulls",
      "name": "Racing Bulls",
      "expected_points": 25.8,
      "projected_points": 19.1,
      "current_price_m": 14.1,
      "value_score": 1.83,
      "risk": "LOW",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -3.1,
        "high": 59.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/racing-bulls/",
      "driver_1": "LIN",
      "driver_2": "TSU_RACING_BULLS",
      "expected_pit_stop_points": 6.8,
      "dnf_probability": 0.08
    }
  ],
  "sample_lineup_100m": {
    "budget_m": 100.0,
    "cost_m": 99.9,
    "bank_m": 0.1,
    "points_basis": "balanced",
    "balanced_points_with_2x": 195.3,
    "unboosted_balanced_points": 164.6,
    "captain_2x": {
      "rank": 1,
      "kind": "driver",
      "id": "ANT",
      "name": "Kimi Antonelli",
      "expected_points": 27.5,
      "projected_points": 34.0,
      "current_price_m": 26.3,
      "value_score": 1.05,
      "risk": "LOW",
      "confidence_interval_90": {
        "low": -4.6,
        "high": 49.0
      },
      "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/kimi-antonelli/",
      "constructor": "mercedes",
      "predicted_quali": 1,
      "predicted_finish": 2,
      "dnf_probability": 0.05,
      "points_per_million": 2.0
    },
    "drivers": [
      {
        "rank": 1,
        "kind": "driver",
        "id": "ANT",
        "name": "Kimi Antonelli",
        "expected_points": 27.5,
        "projected_points": 34.0,
        "current_price_m": 26.3,
        "value_score": 1.05,
        "risk": "LOW",
        "confidence_interval_90": {
          "low": -4.6,
          "high": 49.0
        },
        "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/kimi-antonelli/",
        "constructor": "mercedes",
        "predicted_quali": 1,
        "predicted_finish": 2,
        "dnf_probability": 0.05,
        "points_per_million": 2.0
      },
      {
        "rank": 2,
        "kind": "driver",
        "id": "HUL",
        "name": "Nico Hulkenberg",
        "expected_points": 3.9,
        "projected_points": 5.9,
        "current_price_m": 4.2,
        "value_score": 0.93,
        "risk": "MEDIUM",
        "confidence_interval_90": {
          "low": -18.2,
          "high": 27.0
        },
        "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/nico-hulkenberg/",
        "constructor": "audi",
        "predicted_quali": 13,
        "predicted_finish": 10,
        "dnf_probability": 0.21,
        "points_per_million": 2.22
      },
      {
        "rank": 3,
        "kind": "driver",
        "id": "BOT",
        "name": "Valtteri Bottas",
        "expected_points": -1.8,
        "projected_points": 1.5,
        "current_price_m": 3.0,
        "value_score": -0.6,
        "risk": "HIGH",
        "confidence_interval_90": {
          "low": -19.4,
          "high": 17.0
        },
        "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/valtteri-bottas/",
        "constructor": "cadillac",
        "predicted_quali": 21,
        "predicted_finish": 19,
        "dnf_probability": 0.33,
        "points_per_million": -3.33
      },
      {
        "rank": 4,
        "kind": "driver",
        "id": "PER",
        "name": "Sergio Perez",
        "expected_points": -1.3,
        "projected_points": 0.6,
        "current_price_m": 3.0,
        "value_score": -0.43,
        "risk": "HIGH",
        "confidence_interval_90": {
          "low": -19.4,
          "high": 15.0
        },
        "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/sergio-perez/",
        "constructor": "cadillac",
        "predicted_quali": 22,
        "predicted_finish": 21,
        "dnf_probability": 0.29,
        "points_per_million": 0.11
      },
      {
        "rank": 5,
        "kind": "driver",
        "id": "STR",
        "name": "Lance Stroll",
        "expected_points": -3.0,
        "projected_points": -2.5,
        "current_price_m": 3.0,
        "value_score": -1.0,
        "risk": "HIGH",
        "confidence_interval_90": {
          "low": -19.4,
          "high": 13.0
        },
        "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/drivers/lance-stroll/",
        "constructor": "aston_martin",
        "predicted_quali": 20,
        "predicted_finish": 22,
        "dnf_probability": 0.33,
        "points_per_million": -0.56
      }
    ],
    "constructors": [
      {
        "rank": 1,
        "kind": "constructor",
        "id": "mercedes",
        "name": "Mercedes",
        "expected_points": 68.3,
        "projected_points": 85.9,
        "current_price_m": 33.2,
        "value_score": 2.06,
        "risk": "MEDIUM",
        "confidence_interval_90": {
          "low": 26.3,
          "high": 98.0
        },
        "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/mercedes/",
        "driver_1": "RUS",
        "driver_2": "ANT",
        "expected_pit_stop_points": 7.3,
        "dnf_probability": 0.11
      },
      {
        "rank": 2,
        "kind": "constructor",
        "id": "ferrari",
        "name": "Ferrari",
        "expected_points": 54.3,
        "projected_points": 55.9,
        "current_price_m": 27.2,
        "value_score": 2.0,
        "risk": "LOW",
        "confidence_interval_90": {
          "low": 16.9,
          "high": 87.0
        },
        "url": "https://boxboxf1fantasy.com/constructors/ferrari/",
        "driver_1": "LEC",
        "driver_2": "HAM",
        "expected_pit_stop_points": 5.3,
        "dnf_probability": 0.1
      }
    ]
  },
  "agent_guidance": [
    "Use expected_points for current-round ranking.",
    "Use confidence_interval_90.low as a conservative downside estimate.",
    "Use value_score or points_per_million when the user asks for budget/value picks.",
    "The sample lineup uses the Balanced basis: the mean of projected_points and expected_points for each pick.",
    "The sample lineup is a public crawlable snapshot; the live optimizer supports other points bases, locks, exclusions, chips and custom budgets.",
    "Predictions are model-based and informational, not guaranteed."
  ],
  "disclaimer": "Independent fan-built site. Not affiliated with Formula 1, the FIA, F1 Fantasy, any F1 team, or any driver."
}